The Most Populous Countries in the World

Two countries hold over 1.4 billion people each — and the rankings are shifting fast

Two countries hold more than 1.4 billion people each. Together, India and China account for roughly 35% of everyone alive. Add the next eight and you have passed half of humanity.

The ten largest countries

Approximate current figures. See the live table for all 217 countries, updating every second.

India overtook China — and it was not close to a coincidence

China held the top position for as long as records existed. India passed it around 2023, and the two have moved in opposite directions since.

China's population is now falling — by close to a million a year through natural change alone. Its fertility rate sits near 1.0, among the world's lowest, and its working-age population peaked over a decade ago. The one-child policy, in force from 1980 to 2015, accelerated a decline that was already underway; relaxing it to two and then three children produced almost no rebound.

India is still growing, though far more slowly than most people assume. Its fertility rate has fallen to roughly 2.0 — below replacement. India's continued growth is driven by population momentum: a young age structure means many people are still entering childbearing age, so births exceed deaths even at below-replacement fertility. That momentum is finite, and India's population is projected to peak around the 2060s.

Who is rising, who is falling

The composition of this list will change substantially this century, and the direction of travel splits cleanly by region.

• Nigeria is the fastest riser. With a fertility rate above 5, it is projected to pass the United States to become the world's third-largest country before 2050.
• Ethiopia and the DR Congo are on similar trajectories, both likely to enter the top ten and climb.
• Russia and Japan are shrinking. Japan has already dropped out of the top ten; Russia's population is falling by several hundred thousand a year.
• China is projected to lose several hundred million people by 2100 under UN medium-variant assumptions — a decline without modern precedent for a country of its size.

The concentration is unusual

It is worth pausing on how lopsided the distribution is. There are around 195 countries. The top ten hold well over half the world's people; the bottom hundred combined hold less than India alone.

Tuvalu, the smallest sovereign state by population, has fewer than 10,000 residents — roughly the population of a small town, with the same seat at the UN General Assembly as China. That range, from five figures to ten, is the widest spread of any commonly used national statistic.

For how these totals are projected forward second by second, see how the world population clock works.